Central New Mexico Weather: 10/10/19

Yesterday was a sunny, mild and still day.  The evening was a little chilly.

Today is mostly sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  a strong cold front will push into New Mexico from the north, dropping temperatures and creating gusty winds for the northern half of the state.  Many locations will see their first hard freeze tonight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest at 15-25 mph, and gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 26 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, but decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, becoming west at 15-20 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 33 F.  The winds will be from the north at 15-25 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 73 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, becoming west 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but then decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a freezing temperatures for many locations tonight.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows that there is some dense fog in some of the valleys this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows the atmosphere has dried out overnight.  There was 0.36 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1768 m.  There was large thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 20 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 62 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under a low pressure system, with no strong pressure gradients so far this morning.  The RAP shows that strong high pressure from the northwest will cause a strong pressure gradient over northern New Mexico, starting in the next six hours or so.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) over the northern half of the state.  There’s our cold front!

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows that storms and precipitation are unlikely.  This, and the precipitation chart are excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 70s F today.

The temperature is expected to drop into the lower 30s F before sunrise.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop into the 10s F by this evening.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds will be likely with the passage of this cold front.

The Nested NAM predicts mostly clear skies today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

This is probably the end of my garden.  I have been watching this system for a few days and I had my doubts it would drop as far south (and as cold), but I was mistaken.  I don’t expect my plants to survive and will disconnect the hoses when I get home.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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