Central New Mexico Weather: 10/9/19

Yesterday, there were storms nearby, including a small hail storm just south of Socorro.  I didn’t hear of any damage, but a student of mine showed me some of the video.

Today is mostly sunny, mild and still.  There is some light fog in the Rio Grande River Valley.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  a strong, cold storm system has entered the Pacific Northwest.  An associated cold front will cross the state tomorrow, but strong winds will pass through the state ahead of the front.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 72 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming light after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 81 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph, becoming south after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-20 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning locally heavy wind this afternoon.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a relatively humid atmosphere below 600 mb.  There was 0.50 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 97 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -218 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 268 m.  There was small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 22 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 38 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will decrease with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows that storms and precipitation are unlikely.  This, and the precipitation chart are excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 70s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop into the 20s F by this evening.

The Nested NAM does not show the strong winds that were mentioned in the NWS prediction.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts mostly clear skies today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

I think the NWS is correct with the wind prediction, though I think it will be mostly canyon winds and such, perhaps below the resolution of the Nested NAM’s ability to predict.  The winds do increase throughout the day, reaching into the low 20 mph range, so I expect gusts to reach higher, even if the Nested NAM doesn’t show it.  Otherwise, it will be a precipitation free day.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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