Central New Mexico Weather: 10/8/19

Yesterday was a sunny, pleasant day.

Today is mostly sunny, mild and still.  There is some light fog in the Rio Grande River Valley.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  a weak shortwave trough will move through the southwest this afternoon and evening.  This, combined with upslope flow and adequate moisture over the southeastern corner of the state will lead to showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.  Some of these storms may become severe, with hail being the primary threat.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 72 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming light after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 74 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, becoming mostly clear, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 51 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 72 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph, becoming northeast this afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy becoming mostly clear, with a low temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning strong to severe storms this afternoon in the southeastern corner of the state.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for southeastern New Mexico.  The primary threat will be hail.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows a few light clouds scattered around the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere below 600 mb.  There was 0.65 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 8 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -488 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 761 m.  There was small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 36 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will decrease with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few thunderstorms forming along the I-25 corridor this afternoon.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows that light rain is possible over most of the southern half of the state.   A few swaths of heavy rain, associated with the thunderstorms, are possible as well.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 70s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 40s F for most of the day.

The Nested NAM shows that strong winds are possible, particularly near the central mountain chain this evening.

The Nested NAM predicts clouds, though only really associated with the thunderstorms.

There is a chance of severe thunderstorms today.  The Nested NAM has a strong storm crossing I-25 near Belen this afternoon, but I don’t put much stock in the exact location of its predictions.  I’ll watch today and see how far away storms form from that spot.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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