Central New Mexico Weather: 9/28/19

Yesterday was sunny, warm and still.  There were a few clouds in the afternoon, and even a brief shower along my commute to Albuquerque.

This morning has been sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The low pressure system has become a small, shortwave trough that will be exiting the region today.  Southwesterly flow aloft will increase and a dryline will sharpen east of the central mountain range.  Strong to severe storms are possible east of the dryline, with large hail as their primary threat.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with highs in the lower 80s F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a lows in the lower 50s F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with highs in the upper 70s F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a lows in the mid 50s F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with highs in the lower 80s F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a lows in the lower 50s F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the potential for severe storms over the northeastern corner of the state today.  Severe storms in this area will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately humid layer below 550 mb.  There was 0.62 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 894 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.3 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 24 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are still.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, with no strong pressure gradients expected over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few showers and thunderstorms are possible very close to the Texas border, and nowhere else.  This, and the precipitation chart, have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 70s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 40s F today.  The dryline is not as sharp as described by the NWS.

The Nested NAM shows that strong winds are possible in the late evening.

The Nested NAM predicts very few clouds over the Albuquerque Metro area this evening.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Any storms that form today will be near the Texas border.  They will blow up and then quickly move out of the state.  The real weather concern today for the Albuquerque Metro area is going to be the wind.  If the NWS is correct, today will windier than we’ve seen for several weeks.  The Nested NAM is downplaying the wind, barely meeting the criteria for me to post it on this blog.  The season, they are changing.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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