Central New Mexico Weather: 9/27/19

Yesterday was sunny, warm and still.  There were a few clouds in the afternoon.

This morning has been sunny, cool and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The low that has been over Arizona will move east today.  It will open up (no longer be a closed low) and weaken.  There is some moisture over the state, so a few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 54 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming light and variable.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 85 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 54 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 77 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly-saturated layer around 675 mb.  There was 0.64 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1269 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 12 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 36 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are still.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, with no strong pressure gradients expected over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the southern part of the state this afternoon.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows that rain will be confined to the south, associated with the isolated, afternoon thunderstorms.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 70s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 40s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that strong winds are unlikely in the Rio Grande River Valley today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts a few evening clouds, but only in the area near the afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  The Albuquerque Metro area will likely remain clear.

The Nested NAM doesn’t seem to think there will be many showers and thunderstorms today over the Albuquerque Metro area.  It should be a pleasant day here in New Mexico, though a bit breezier than yesterday.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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