Central New Mexico Weather: 9/24/19

Yesterday was sunny, warm and still.  We had some heavy rain in Rio Rancho last night, with a few strokes of lightning and a lot of wind.  I needed a jacket to unload my pickup truck.

This morning has been partly cloudy, cool and still.  I brought my jacket with me today.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The forecast for the next few days will be tricky.  It is all based on the path and timing of the low pressure system that developed over Arizona yesterday.  It has moved over southern California and is expected to shift south today, but it will wobble around the southwest over the next few days.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over New Mexico, based on its motion and the advection of moisture into the state.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 81 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming north by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 78 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming northeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 52 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning strong thunderstorms that are possible this afternoon and evening.  Storms may contain large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain that can lead to flash flooding.

The visible satellite imagery shows a large stripe of low clouds over central New Mexico this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows moisture has increased as compared to yesterday.  There was 0.73 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 381 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.5 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 14 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 453 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a partly cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning, though there is a slight pressure gradient to the northeast.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, with no strong pressure gradients expected over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a large cluster of storms over the southwestern corner of the state today.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows that the heaviest rain is expected in the southwestern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 70s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 40s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that strong winds are unlikely in the Rio Grande River Valley today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts some cloud cover in the southern half of the state by this evening.

The Nested NAM doesn’t seem to think there will be many showers and thunderstorms today over the Albuquerque Metro area.  I tend to disagree with it, based on the high humidity and the expectation that the skies will clear later.  The lapse rates are not impressive right now, but with diurnal heating, that will improve, and I bet our chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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