Central New Mexico Weather: 9/21/19

Yesterday was sunny, hot and clear, there was no precipitation in Socorro or along my commuting route.  It was breezy in the afternoon.

This morning has been sunny, cool and still.  We had our windows open and the heater kicked on just before dawn, so I got up and shut the windows.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Most of the state is under dry air again today.  The exception is the southeastern corner, where moisture from Hurricane Lorena is advecting from the southeast.  The moisture combined with upslope flow will lead to a few strong thunderstorms in the southeastern corner of the state.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 52 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 86 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 55 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning strong thunderstorms that are possible this afternoon and evening.  Storms will favor the southeastern corner of the state, and may contain large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain that can lead to flash flooding.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the southeastern corner of the state today.  The primary threats will be large hail, damaging winds, heavy localized rain and flash flooding.

The visible satellite imagery shows a bank of clouds over the southeastern corner of the state, but clear skies over the Rio Grande River Valley this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a much drier atmosphere this morning.  There was 0.46 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2154 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.1 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 12 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 51 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and low surface humidity.  The skies are a clear, with a few exceptions in the east (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, with a slight pressure gradient, dropping to the northeast.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a large cluster of storms over the southeastern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows that the heaviest rain is expected in the southeastern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 80s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will rise into the 40s F as moisture advects up the Rio Grande River Valley.

The Nested NAM shows that strong winds are unlikely in the Rio Grande River Valley today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts heavy cloud cover associated with the cluster of storms, but clear skies elsewhere.

The air is drying out again over the Rio Grande River Valley.  Today should be quite pleasant.  I will be going to the Duke City Hamfest, part of which will be outside, so I hope the weather isn’t too warm.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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