Central New Mexico Weather: 9/15/19

Yesterday was warm and cloudy.  In the evening, we had a storm roll through Rio Rancho that had quite a bit of lightning, most of which was cloud-to-ground and less than a mile away.  It knocked out power at my house for an hour, and my dog was petrified.

This morning has been overcast, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Sub-tropical moisture still exists over the state today, generating showers and thunderstorms.  The heavy cloud cover will keep today cooler than average as well.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 73 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 77 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 70 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 55 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning scattered thunderstorms over most of the state.  Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, cloud to ground lightning, small hail and gusty outflow winds.

The visible satellite imagery shows a blanket of clouds over most of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere all the way up to 200 mb.  There was 1.04 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 59 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -146 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 892 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.5 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 7 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 16 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under high pressure, but no strong pressure gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart show showers and thunderstorms are likely over most of the state.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows that the heaviest precipitation will be over the western half of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 60s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain into the 50s F today.  Notice the dryline running southwest to northeast.

The Nested NAM shows that strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts mostly cloudy to overcast skies throughout the day.

Today looks to be a nice day, temperature-wise, but showers and thunderstorms are likely. I want to spend a little time in my front yard moving the wet dirt around to patch the hole where we did some plumbing work, now that the ground is soft.  I’ll probably do this instead of running this morning, but we’ll see.  Maybe I’ll do both anyhow.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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