Central New Mexico Weather: 9/11/19

Yesterday was hot, humid and mostly cloudy by the afternoon.  We only got a quick sprinkle of rain in Socorro, but there was a beautiful thunderstorm to our east at sunset.  I tried my best to get a picture of the lightning, but it didn’t work out.  I was running between a class and a tutoring appointment, so I didn’t get a chance to set up a real camera.

This morning has been mostly sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A Pacific front will cross from west to east, causing another active weather day for New Mexico.  Monsoon moisture, plus the lift from the front will mean scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 89 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 82 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 54 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning scattered showers and thunderstorms over most of the state today.  Small hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts to 50 mph are also possible.  Some storms may produce heavy rains and localized flooding.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few small patches of light clouds

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere below 550 mb.  There was 1.04 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 522 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -158 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 447 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.0 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 15 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 34 kts (due mostly to speed changes).  These conditions have led to a Supercell Parameter of 2.0.

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a partly cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows only a few tiny patches of showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows only meager rainfall amounts, particularly in the northern part of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 80s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts a few clouds by this afternoon.

Today, the NWS is calling for scattered showers and thunderstorms, statewide, but the NAM Nested models are unimpressed.  I tend to think that the models are not handling the moisture well; we seem to have plenty of moisture and lift, yet the models are not showing much cloud cover.  I think we probably have more cloud cover now than the models show, so I am tending towards having showers and thunderstorms this evening.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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