Central New Mexico Weather: 9/10/19

Yesterday was hot, humid and mostly cloudy by the afternoon.  I didn’t run through any rain, though there were tall cumulus clouds around and patches of rain in the distance.

This morning has been mostly cloudy, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  An upper-level trough over the west coast and broad high pressure over the southeast have funneled moisture into the state overnight.  With the return of moisture, the chances of showers and thunderstorms have increased.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 88 F.  The winds will be light and variable, becoming south at 5-10 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 89 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 82 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms with a low temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning scattered showers and thunderstorms over the most of the state.  Storms will have heavy rains and may lead to localized flooding, especially near burn scars.  Small hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts to 50 mph are also possible.

The visible satellite imagery shows patches of light clouds over the Rio Grande River Valley this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere below 500 mb, with a nearly-saturated layer at 550 mb.  There was 0.82 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 83 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -335 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1403 m.  There was a no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.8 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 5 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 18 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a partly cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows storms are possible all over the state this afternoon, with a few stronger, more discrete storms in the eastern third of the state.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain will be the heaviest in the eastern third of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 80s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts mostly cloudy skies all over the state by this evening.

Today, there will be a good chance of showers and thunderstorms off and on all day.  What is left of my garden will be happy.  I’d also like it to soften the ground in my front yard so that I can start filling where the dirt settled after our plumbing repair this summer.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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