Central New Mexico Weather: 9/9/19

Yesterday was hot, humid and mostly cloudy by the afternoon.  We had a brief rainstorm yesterday evening

This morning has been mostly clear, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Drier air has infiltrated the northern half of the state and will continue to diminish the chances of showers and thunderstorms.  Storms are still possible south of I-40 today, but their chances will decrease in the overnight hours.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 63 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 90 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming east by the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10 mph

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 82 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms with a low temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southern half of the state.  Storms will have heavy rains, small hail and gusty winds.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The infrared imagery shows that the eastern half of the state is still under cloud cover, but the western half has cleared.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a clear, with a few patches of clouds in the east and south (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows storms will are possible, particularly in the southeastern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain will be the heaviest in the southeastern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 80s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop into the 40s F, and that dry air will push in from the north and west.

The Nested NAM shows that strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts clouds along the line of thunderstorms, but then clear skies behind it.

Today, our chances of showers and thunderstorms have decreased significantly.  We will probably remain dry in Rio Rancho, though there may be a shower or thunderstorm in Magdalena.  Temperatures will return to average or just barely above average for early September.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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