Central New Mexico Weather: 9/8/19

Yesterday was hot, humid and mostly cloudy by the afternoon.  We had two separate rainstorms, one in the afternoon and one in the evening, and the ground got a good soaking.

This morning has been mostly cloudy, warm and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The upper-level trough will move into the Rocky Mountains today and interact with the surge of moisture that pushed into the state yesterday and this morning.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, with linear and cluster mode storms most likely.  Heavy rains and flash flooding are possible with these storms, particularly east of the continental divide.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 87 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 64 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 88 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest by the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 64 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 80 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms with a low temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning scattered showers and thunderstorms over the most of the state.  Storms will have heavy rains and may lead to localized flooding, especially near burn scars.

The visible satellite imagery shows thick cloud cover over a few patches of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere below 300 mb, with a nearly-saturated layer at 550 mb, and another at 350 mb.  There was 1.01 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 300 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -226 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 637 m.  There was a no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 16 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 26 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows warm temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny, with a few patches of clouds (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows storms will continue to fire, generally along a line that runs southwest to northeast through the state.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain will be the heaviest in the northeastern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 80s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F today, climbing into the low 60s F for a few hours this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows that strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts clouds along the line of thunderstorms, but then clear skies behind it.

Today, there will be a good chance of showers and thunderstorms off and on all day.  I do think the skies will be left cloudier than the Nested NAM suggests, and I think we may have more storms this evening.  However, dry air is filtering into the state behind the trough, so it may dry out a bit this week.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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