The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Outlook shows some severe threats this week.
Day 1: Slight Risk
The SPC has issued a Slight Risk for the coastal areas of the Carolinas. At first, I didn’t see this risk at all, and it wasn’t until I considered Hurricane Dorian that I found the Slight Risk. There is also a Marginal Risk in the northern Great Plains.
The tornado threat is 5% as Hurricane Dorian’s outer bands make landfall.
Day 2: Slight Risk
The SPC has issued a Slight Risk along the North Carolina coast for Day 2. This is, once again, due to Hurricane Dorian. There is also a Marginal Risk over Oregon. A shortwave trough is expected to cross into Oregon and move east around the large ridge in the center of the United States.
Day 3: Marginal Risk
The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for northeastern Wyoming on Day 3. This risk is due to the shortwave trough making its way around the ridge in the central part of the country. The ridge is also preventing Hurricane Dorian from veering on shore completely.
Day 4-8: Predictability Too Low
A quasi-zonal flow pattern is expected starting on Day 4. While a few severe thunderstorms are possible, they will be limited and hard to predict, as many of the ingredients do not line up. The shortwave trough may increase storm intensity, but it will be behind a cold front, and so on. By Day 6, the chances of severe weather in the northern Great Plains may increase, but predictability is low at this time.
Thank you for reading this post.
All data and images are from the Storm Prediction Center Website.