Central New Mexico Weather: 8/31/19

Yesterday was hot and moderately humid, but it remained precipitation-free everywhere I traveled (Magdalena to Rio Rancho).

This morning has been sunny, but smoky, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  An upper-level high will drift over the Four Corners region.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along and east of the central mountain chain, as well as over the southwestern mountains.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 95 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 86 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a scattered showers and thunderstorms that will be possible east of the central mountain chain and over the southwestern mountains.  Storm motion is slow, so heavy rain is the primary threat.  Also, near-record heat is possible across the northwestern part of the state.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the Rio Grande River Valley this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere, particularly below 450 mb.  There was 0.87 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 65 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -420 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1654 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 18 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 22 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northerly to northeasterly flow, as the winds circles around the upper-level high pressure system.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a line of storms developing from southwest to northeast, just ahead of a weak front that may develop this afternoon.

The Nested NAM 24-hour precipitation chart shows a few small patches of rain, particularly in the northeastern part of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid-90s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the upper 40s F and lower 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts a few clouds by this evening, though they are only near the afternoon thunderstorms.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, though it looks like the Albuquerque Metro area will not see many of them.  Otherwise, today will be hot, humid and still.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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