Storm Prediction Center Update: 8/28/19

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Outlook shows some severe threats this week.

Day 1:  Marginal Risk

The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for a small piece of northeastern New Mexico.  The biggest threat left today is for large hail and locally damaging winds.  Storms will take on a weak supercellular structure due to the steep lapse rates, but only limited deep-layer shear.

The tornado threat is less than 2% in all areas.

Day 2:  Slight Risk

The SPC has issued a Slight Risk along a swath of the Midwest, from northeastern Kansas to southeastern Wisconsin.  A shortwave trough across Canada will force a frontal boundary into this region.  This area will have become sufficiently humid as moisture pools ahead of the frontal boundary.  Steep lapse rates will support a large thunderstorm complex.  Primary threats will be damaging winds, though large hail and a 2% tornado threat may be in order.

Day 3:  No Severe Thunderstorms Forecasted

Severe thunderstorms are possible in the southern Great Plains, but confidence in location and timing is still unclear.  Therefore, no risk area has been assigned at this time.  Variables include the amount of cloud cover, left-over outflow boundaries from Day 2 convection, and how much upslope flow is possible.  The atmosphere will be unseasonably damp, with dewpoints in the upper 60s F.

Day 4-8:  Predictability Too Low

Due to the uncertainties that begin on Day 3, the models begin to diverge, and no risk areas have been assigned for Days 4-8.  A lee-side low is expected to develop over the High Plains and moisture is expected to return, even in the northern plains where moisture may have been cleared by Day 2 convection.  However, timing of any upper-level shortwaves is in question.

Thank you for reading this post.

All data and images are from the Storm Prediction Center Website.

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Models, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Severe Weather, SPC 1-7 day and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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