Yesterday was hot and moderately humid, and there were nearby showers and thunderstorms, just north of Socorro.
This morning has been partly sunny, mild and still.
From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM: Moisture increased due to the passing of the back door cold front earlier this week, meaning high dewpoints and the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the eastern and southern parts of the state today. Some of these storms may become severe, with large hail and damaging winds possible. In the west, high pressure is building, which may lead to near-record temperatures.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming south. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming light and variable after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorm and a low temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a few isolated, strong showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms may become severe, with large hail and locally damaging winds as the primary threat.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for a swath of eastern New Mexico today.
The visible satellite imagery shows sunny skies over the western half of the state and stratus over the eastern half.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere below 500 mb. There was 0.91 inches of precipitable water in the column. There was 1340 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -202 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 768 m. There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.7 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 23 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 11 kts (due mostly to speed changes).
The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity. The skies are a sunny in the west, cloudy in the northeast (according to the sensors) and the winds are still.
The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows slight high pressure, but no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, zonal flow over the state today.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the central mountain range by this afternoon.
The Nested NAM 24-hour precipitation chart shows large swaths of rain, especially over the eastern half of the state today.
The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid-90s F today.
The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will range from the low 60s F to the upper 30s F.
The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM predicts partly cloudy skies this evening.
The increased moisture will lead to a few showers and thunderstorms today. My garden should be happy.
Thank you for reading my post.
Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD
High Plains Chasing 