Central New Mexico Weather: 8/24/19

Yesterday was hot and drier than the past few days, though I did commute through two separate showers along I-25.

This morning has been mostly sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Little change from yesterday.  Warm, dry air will continue to push into the state from the west, limiting the shower and thunderstorm potential.  A few storms are possible today, particularly over the eastern part of the state, and high elevations in the southern part of the state.  The models are not handling the moisture and the wind field very well, so there may be a few more storms than the models are showing at this time.  Record heat may be possible in the next few days.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 96 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 98 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming north by this afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a few isolated, strong showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern corner of the state.  Storms could produce large hail and damaging winds.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the Rio Grande River Valley.  There is an interesting boundary running nearly west to east through the state, as marked by the thin line of clouds.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately humid atmosphere.  There was 0.58 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1403 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.2 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 1 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 29 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are still.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows that a small trough has mostly passed, though we have northerly winds in the north and zonal flow in the south.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows very few showers and thunderstorms.  Precipitation is unlikely.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid-90s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 30s F all day.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts clear skies this evening.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Hot and dry weather is in store for us today.  I think the dewpoint may be a little higher than the models are predicting, which means we might have a few afternoon clouds and maybe some extremely isolated showers and thunderstorms, but in general, I am expecting a sunny, hot, dry, still day.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.