Central New Mexico Weather: 8/18/19

Yesterday was hot, moderately humid, and mostly sunny.  There were a few clouds that formed in the afternoon and evening, giving me a little shade to work in the garden.

This morning has been mostly sunny, warm and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Very little change from yesterday.  Unseasonably dry air has drifted into New Mexico.  The dry air will support very few clouds, thus raising the temperatures to record levels.  The subtropical ridge axis runs east to west, just south of New Mexico, preventing moisture from advecting north.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 96 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5 mph, becoming north by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 99 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming west by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning near-record high temperatures today.  There is a Heat Advisory in place near Roswell, as temperatures will reach 105 F.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows an inverted-v pattern, with a nearly-saturated layer at 525 mb.  There was 0.47 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2422 m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 25 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 32 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, zonal flow over the state this morning.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few, very isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.  Even so, they barely show up on the chart, so this chart, as well as the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid-90s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop into the 20s F by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts a few clouds this evening, particularly in the southern half of the state.

Dry air has returned.  It will be hot, but not humid, so maybe today will be tolerable.  I need to do some yard work, and I might go for a run in a few minutes as well.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Advertisements

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.