Central New Mexico Weather: 8/16/19

Yesterday was hot, moderately humid, and mostly sunny.

This morning has been mostly sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The upper-level high will continue deform, diffuse and weaken, allowing more dry air to enter the state from the northwest.  This will limit precipitation.  Storms may form, but they will be high-based and dry.  However, this type of storm could yield a few virga bombs.  Also, the temperatures will rise to dangerous levels in the eastern plains today.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming light and variable by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 97 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming west at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 89 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a few possible storms.  A few storms may have gusty winds and hail.  Storms are more isolated today.  Also, a Heat Advisory is in place due to the hot temperatures over the Eastern Plains.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly-saturated layer from 500 mb to 350 mb, with drier air below.  There was 0.68 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1551 m.  There was a thick thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.2 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 7 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 7 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state this morning.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few, very isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.  Even so, they barely show up on the chart, so this chart, as well as the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid-90s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop from the upper 40s F to the upper 30s F throughout the day.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts very few clouds this evening.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

 

Dry air is slowly returning to the state.  The chance of storms will be significantly lower today as compared to yesterday.  It will be hot and start to dry out significantly today.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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