Central New Mexico Weather: 8/15/19

Yesterday was hot, moderately humid, and mostly sunny.  There were a few evening showers and thunderstorms about, but we never had more than an occasional drop. In Rio Rancho, the evening was mostly clear.

This morning has been mostly sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The upper-level high will deform, diffuse and weaken, allowing more dry air to enter the state.  Temperatures will increase and moisture will decrease, particularly in the northern part of the state.  Moist air will linger south of I-40, meaning isolated showers and thunderstorms are still possible.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 64 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming south after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming west at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, becoming south at 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning storms that will be possible south of I-40.  A few storms may have gusty winds and hail.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately humid atmosphere below 400 mb.  There was 0.79 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 124 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -606 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 630 m.  There was a thick thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 13 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 20 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows high pressure over eastern New Mexico, with a slight pressure gradient to the south and west.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state this morning.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, particularly in the southern half of the state.

The Nested NAM 24-hour precipitation chart shows a little rain is possible south of I-40.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F throughout the day.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts only a few lingering clouds this evening.

Dry air is slowly returning to the state.  The chance of storms will be significantly lower today as compared to yesterday.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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