Central New Mexico Weather: 8/13/19

Yesterday was hot, moderately humid, and mostly sunny.  The evening was mostly clear and pleasant as well.  We sat outside and chatted until well after sunset.

This morning has been mostly sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  High pressure has drifted over southwestern New Mexico, bringing dry air with it.  A little moisture remains in the west, which may lead to a dry thunderstorm or two over the high terrain.  Moisture has not decreased in the eastern plains, so the moisture and upslope flow may contribute to a few showers and thunderstorms over the eastern plains.  Storms are expected to remain below severe limits.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming calm in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 96 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming west in the evening.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming west by midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the Rio Grande River Valley this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows that the moisture has decreased, as compared to yesterday’s sounding.  There was 0.70 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 271 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -489 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1034 m.  There was a moderately thick thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.2 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 2 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 31 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state this morning.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today.  This, and the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will start in the upper 40s F, but will drop into the upper 30s F this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts very few clouds today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

It is hot, but not quite as humid.  The monsoon pattern has broken for a few days, and dry air will continue to drop dewpoints and lessen the chances for rain or storms.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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