Central New Mexico Weather: 8/11/19

Yesterday was cool and cloudy in the morning, but then became warm and sunny in the afternoon.  There were scattered showers about, but we never had any rain.

This morning has been partly sunny, warm and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) over Arizona is expected to shift northeast into western New Mexico, then across northern New Mexico.  However, the models have not been handling precipitation well.  Today’s forecast will depend on whether the convective temperature is reached before cloud cover limits diurnal heating.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 88 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 64 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 80 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the possibility of thunderstorms this evening, with heavy rainfall as the primary threat.  Storms may motion may be slow.  Storms that form in the eastern part of the state may have small hail and gusty winds, up to 50 mph.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere.  There was 1.11 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 20 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -404 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1026 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 6 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 31 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a partly cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The entire College of DuPage weather lab page is down, so I do not have model data this morning.

It is hot and humid again, though there may be an afternoon shower or thunderstorm to cool things down a bit.  I may try to work on a few things outside, but we’ll see.  It’s already hot and humid, but I do need to do some work on a car and to the yard…

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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