Central New Mexico Weather: 8/10/19

Yesterday was hot, humid and partly sunny.  It rained off and on along my commute from Socorro.

This morning has been mostly cloudy, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The combination of a weak disturbance and ample moisture will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms today throughout the region.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 90 F.  The winds will be light and variable, becoming south at 5-10 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 92 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming north in the evening.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 84 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 780% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the possibility of thunderstorms this evening, with heavy rainfall as the primary threat.  Storms may motion may be slow.  Storms will favor the northeastern corner of the state, where they will approach or exceed severe limits, with small hail and outflow winds gusting to 60 mph.  There are several Flash Flood Watches in effect as well, as shown on the NWS Watches and Warnings graphic below:

The visible satellite imagery shows light clouds scattered around most of the state this morning.  The edge of a boundary is shown over the Texas Panhandle, where there is a line of morning convection.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are still.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows weak, southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are possible for most of the state today.

The Nested NAM 24-hr precipitation chart shows a few large swaths of precipitation.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will be in the 50s F, climbing into the 60s F a few times.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts heavy cloud cover over much of the state by this evening.

It is hot and humid again, though there may be an afternoon shower or thunderstorm to cool things down a bit.  I will be hiking in the caldera, rain or shine.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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