Central New Mexico Weather: 8/7/19

Yesterday was hot, moderately humid, and mostly cloudy all day.  We had rain off and on in Socorro and in Rio Rancho.

This morning has been mostly sunny, mild and still.  Sunrise was beautiful this morning:

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Today will be similar to yesterday, though storm coverage may be a little lighter.  The upper level high is drifting to southern New Mexico, and will eventually head east, bringing deep moisture into the state again.  Showers and thunderstorms will be more likely in the northern and western parts of the state today.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 91 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming north after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 94 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 68 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the west at  10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the possibility of thunderstorms this evening, with heavy rainfall as the primary threat.  Storms may motion may be slow and erratic.  Storms will favor the northern and western parts of the state.

The visible satellite imagery shows morning convection in the southeastern corner of the state and a few scattered clouds elsewhere.  The Albuquerque Metro area is mostly sunny.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere, with a nearly-saturated layer near 500 mb.  There was 1.17 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 194 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -295 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 643 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 9 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 12 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows weak upper-level, anticyclonic winds circling around the high pressure system.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over the northern and western parts of the state by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM 24-hr precipitation chart shows a few patches of precipitation, particularly in the northwestern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will be in the 50s F all day.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts heavy cloud cover over the northern and western parts of the state by this evening.

It is hot and humid again, though there may be an afternoon shower or thunderstorm to cool things down a bit.

I’m hoping my front yard will get a chance to dry out, as it is all mud right now and we are having to use the back door to the house.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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