Central New Mexico Weather: 8/1/19

Today was hot and moderately humid again.  There was a large, non-severe thunderstorm over the Sandias that produced some outflow winds in Albuquerque and Rio Rancho this afternoon.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The upper-level high will move slightly east.  Moisture over Utah and Arizona will creep into western New Mexico by tomorrow afternoon, increasing the likelihood and intensity of thunderstorms.  Storms will have erratic but quick motion, tempering the flash flood potential.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.  The evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 69 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming light and variable after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a  sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  The evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 68 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 86 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  The evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, with heavy rainfall as the primary threat.  Storm coverage will favor the areas west of the continental divide.  Flash flooding is possible, especially near burn scars.

The enhanced infrared imagery shows heavy, thick cloud cover over Arizona, but very little over New Mexico this evening.

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a clear (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this evening.  The RAP shows that the pressure will no strong gradients are expected to develop overnight.

The 03 Z NAM simulated upper air sounding forecast from Albuquerque, NM, shows increased moisture at all levels.  The precipitable water is around 1.09 inches.  There will be 1405 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) will be high, at 1422 m.  Shear is weak at all levels.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows the upper-level high centered right over New Mexico, with winds spinning anticyclonic around this system.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection tomorrow.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few showers and thunderstorms near the western edge of the state.

The Nested NAM shows a few precipitation swaths, moving almost due north as storms pass.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F, but a few places could see 60 F dewpoints, particularly near the moisture plume in the western edge of the state.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely tomorrow.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared imagery shows very few thick clouds tomorrow.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Tomorrow looks hot and humid again.  The chances of showers and thunderstorms have increased as moisture surges east into the western edge of the state.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD.

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.