Central New Mexico Weather: 7/31/19

Today was hot and moderately humid.  A few large cumulus clouds developed over Magdalena, but I don’t think it rained there at all.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  An upper-level high is still parked over north-central New Mexico, keeping the deeper moisture over Arizona.  Drier air has infiltrated the state at the mid-levels.  Overall, the humid surface conditions but dry air aloft means only a few isolated storms are likely, and limited to the high terrain.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  The evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 69 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a  sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  The evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 68 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a  high temperature of 87 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph.  The evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, with heavy rainfall as the primary threat.  Storm coverage will favor the areas west of the continental divide.

The enhanced infrared imagery shows heavy, thick cloud cover over Arizona, but very little over New Mexico this evening.

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a clear (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this evening.  The RAP shows that the pressure will no strong gradients are expected to develop overnight.

The 02 Z NAM simulated upper air sounding forecast from Albuquerque, NM, shows a classic inverted-v shape, with a layer of saturated air at 600 mb.  The precipitable water is around 0.89 inches.  There will be virtually no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) will be high, at 2675 m.  Shear is weak at all levels.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows the upper-level high centered right over New Mexico, with winds spinning anticyclonic around this system.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection tomorrow.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The NAM Nest simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The NAM Nest predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F.

The NAM Nest shows that the dewpoints will drop into the upper 40s F for a few hours late in the afternoon.  Otherwise, dewpoints will remain in the 50s.

The NAM Nest shows that strong gusts are unlikely tomorrow.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The NAM Nest simulated infrared imagery shows very few thick clouds tomorrow.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Tomorrow looks hot and perhaps a little less humid than today.  Showers and thunderstorms are unlikely again tomorrow.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD.

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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