Central New Mexico Weather: 7/28/19

Today was hot and moderately humid, with some afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  I don’t think we had much rain at my house, but I did drive to Bernalillo, and there had been some heavy rains.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  High pressure over southeastern Arizona has allowed dry air to begin to filter into New Mexico.  At the same time, a backdoor cold front will enter from the northeast.  The drier conditions and slightly cooler temperatures will decrease the chances of precipitation tomorrow.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.  The evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 68 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming east before midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 99 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  The evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 68 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 90 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming north in the afternoon.  The evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 63 F.  The winds will be from the north at 10 mph, becoming southeast after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, with heavy rainfall as the primary threat.

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this evening.  The RAP shows that the pressure will no strong gradients are expected to develop overnight.

The 21 Z NAM simulated upper air sounding forecast from Albuquerque, NM, shows a classic inverted-v shape, with a layer of saturated air at 600 mb.  The precipitable water is around 0.8 inches.  There will be a little bit of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) will be high, over 3000 m.  Wind in all layers is weak, and thus, the shear is weak and almost purely directional shear.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows weak, northerly flow over the state tomorrow.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  Supposedly, there is a back door cold front, but I’m not seeing much of one.  Wishful thinking, or perhaps I’m missing it.  I have excluded this chart in today’s post.

The NAM Nest simulated reflectivity chart shows a few very isolated showers and thunderstorms tomorrow.

Associated with the reflectivities, there are a few pockets of precipitation, according to the NAM Nest model.

The NAM Nest predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 90s F.

The NAM Nest shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s.

The NAM Nest shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The NAM Nest simulated infrared imagery shows only a few clouds over the state tomorrow afternoon.

Tomorrow looks hot and humid, with little chance of precipitation.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD.

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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