Today was dry, hot road trip from Rio Rancho, NM, to Anaheim, CA. The focus of my weather forecasting for the next few days will be Anaheim, as I am in town for a conference.
From the NWS in San Diego, CA: High pressure aloft will keep temperatures warm, while suppressing some of the clouds as well. However, moisture is still creeping into the area from the southeast, bringing the chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in areas of strong heating (deserts) or uplift (mountains).
The NWS in San Diego, CA, forecasts (for Anaheim, CA) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be light and variable, becoming southwest at 5-10 mph in the afternoon. The evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming light and variable after midnight.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few light clouds over southern California this evening.
The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity. The skies are a clear (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.
The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this evening. The RAP shows that the pressure will no strong gradients are expected to develop overnight.
The 21 Z NAM forecasted (Nested NAM) upper air sounding near Anaheim, CA, shows an inverted-v profile, though there is a thin layer of surface moisture. There is also a saturated layer around 550 mb. The wind shear is weak; any storms that form will be poorly ventilated and remain below severe limits.
The NAM 250 mb chart southerly flow aloft, as the upper-level winds circle around the upper-level high over New Mexico.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few isolated showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, though they will not impact Anaheim.
Associated with the reflectivities, there are a few pockets of precipitation, according to the NAM Nest model.
The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 80s F.
The NAM Nest shows that the dewpoints will remain in the low 60s F.
The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared imagery shows clouds just east of the Los Angeles area.
While the temperature will be nice, I did forget how humid the Los Angeles area can get. It’s not as humid as Wisconsin was a few weeks ago, but it’s still going to be warm and damp. We will likely avoid the showers and thunderstorms tomorrow.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD.