Williams Bay, WI, Weather: 7/10/19

Yesterday was humid, warm and still in Williams Bay, WI.  We had a few showers blow through in the early morning hours.

This morning has been sunny, mild and still.  I didn’t go for a run this morning, as I expected it to be really muddy, based on the downpour last night.

From the NWS in Milwaukee, WI:  some dense morning fog will be dissipating with daytime heating.  Drier air will move in from the southwest.  Winds will become gusty later this afternoon, limiting the heat index values.  Conditions in the warm sector will remain quite humid, but behind the cold front will be much drier.  Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe limits.

The NWS in Milwaukee, WI, forecasts (for Williams Bay, WI) a sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 89 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Milwaukee, WI, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the possibility of a few thunderstorms this evening.  Thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe limits.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has Williams Bay in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Green Bay, WI, shows a humid boundary layer below 800 mb, but dry air aloft.  There was 1.42 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 268 m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 3.7 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 21 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 31 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and from the southwest.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that there is a low pressure system over the northern Great Plains that is moving to the northeast.  There were no strong pressure gradients over Wisconsin.  The RAP shows no strong pressure systems or gradients are expected in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows southwesterly flow.  In the middle of the day, the jetstreak with moderate southwesterly flow will pass through the state.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows some weak Warm Air Advection (WAA) occurring this morning.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart and 12-hr precipitation chart show very few showers or thunderstorms today.  These chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures will peak in the low 90s F today.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 70s today.  Ugh, humidity!

The HRRR shows that strong gusts are possible this afternoon.

The HRRR predicts only a few clouds this evening.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today is humid.  I wish I had gone for a run, I think it is a nice morning, and I just learned about a trail around the lake.  Too late now.  With storms below severe limits, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Marginal Risk dropped later this afternoon.  I’m not sure if I buy that there will be no storms, especially with the high dewpoints that seem to persist all day.  The Green Bay sounding looks more impressive than it is, just because it is in the warm sector and has adequate shear.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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