Yesterday was humid, warm and still in Williams Bay, WI.
This morning has been sunny, mild and still.
From the NWS in Milwaukee, WI: increased southwesterly flow will help clear out residual smoke. Moisture will increase, with dewpoints in the 60s F, and temperatures will rise into the 80s F. Strong to severe storms are possible later this afternoon and evening; hail is the main concern.
The NWS in Milwaukee, WI, forecasts (for Williams Bay, WI) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 68 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming south after midnight.
The NWS in Milwaukee, WI, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms moving in from the west later this afternoon. Large hail is the primary threat.
The visible satellite imagery shows a bank of higher clouds moving in from the west, but sunny skies over Williams Bay at this time.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Green Bay, WI, shows a relatively dry sounding. There was 0.42 inches of precipitable water in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 166 m. There was a large thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 2.2 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 2 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 18 kts (due mostly to directional changes).
The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity. The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.
The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that there is a low pressure system over the northern Great Plains that is moving to the northeast. There were no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows no strong pressure systems or gradients are expected in the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, southwesterly flow, though there is a moderate jetstreak approaching from the west.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows storms ahead of the boundary by this afternoon.
The HRRR 12-hr precipitation chart shows widespread precipitation over most of the state today.
The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures will peak in the mid-80s F today.
The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 60s today. Ugh, humidity!
The HRRR shows that strong gusts are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR predicts cloudy skies for most of the state this evening.
Today is humid. I still went for a run in the morning.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD