Central New Mexico Weather: 6/16/19

Yesterday was mostly sunny and warm.  However, we did get a brief thunderstorm in the afternoon.  I need to get a rain gauge in place so I can see how much rain we receive.

This morning has been sunny, mild and still.

A weak storm system over the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will increase the convective coverage over the state as compared to yesterday, especially east of the central mountain range.  Storms are expected to remain below severe limits.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F.  The winds will be light and variable, becoming southwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming north after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 84 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.

The Albuquerque, NM, NWS Office has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon.  Strong thunderstorms are possible, with small hail and gusty outflow winds as the primary threats.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows an inverted v shape, with a moisture peak at 550 mb.  There was 0.69 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1022 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.1 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 2 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 14 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity this morning.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that pressure will drop slightly with diurnal heating over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows all sorts of garden-variety showers and thunderstorms popping up by 21 Z.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 80s F today.

The HRRR shows that the moisture will decrease through the afternoon, dropping from the mid 40s F to the lower 30s F.

The HRRR shows that a few strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that clouds are possible, depending on storm coverage.

Today is going to be hot, though afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible and may cool things off a bit.  Storm coverage is larger than yesterday.  Either way, JoAnna and I are going hiking later this morning.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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