Central New Mexico Weather: 6/13/19

Yesterday was hot and sunny all day.

This morning has been sunny, mild and still.

Temperatures are a little warmer today.  There is a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms in the northeastern corner of the state.  Drier air is pushing in from the west, and that will make today and tomorrow gusty and hot.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 92 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 86 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The Albuquerque, NM, NWS Office has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning strong storms, particularly in the northeastern corner of the state.  Primary threats will be heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds this morning, particularly over the eastern half of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a relatively humid atmosphere this morning.  There was 0.64 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1784 m.  There were several tiny thermal inversions near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.6 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 22 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 25 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity this morning.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that a thermal low will develop over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, generating a moderate pressure gradient over most of the state by this afternoon.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northwesterly to zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows a few storms firing over the I-25 corridor by 21 Z.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F today.

The HRRR shows that the moisture will steadily decrease throughout the day.  The dewpoints are in the upper 30s F, but will drop to the lower 30s F by this afternoon.

The HRRR shows that a few strong wind gusts are possible today, particularly east of the central mountain chain.

The HRRR predicts that the skies will cloud up by the early afternoon.

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible today.  Otherwise, it will be hot and breezy all day.  It isn’t mentioned in any of the outlooks, but the wildfire threat will increase today and tomorrow.  We had a small fire in Socorro, and there is still one in the foothills of the Sandias.  These may increase in coverage with the wind today.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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