Just as I expected, I commuted home in the rain and even some small hail yesterday.
This morning has been a partly cloudy, mild and still.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 54 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 78 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 70 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 51 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the possibility of storms, particularly in the southeastern corner of the state. These storms may have gusty winds and large hail.
The visible satellite imagery shows partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies over the northwestern quarter of the state.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately humid atmosphere below 300 mb. There was 0.65 inches of precipitable water in the column. There was 14 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -462 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 891 m. There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.1 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 15 kts (due mostly to directional changes).
The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity this morning. The skies are clear, minus a few stations in the north-central part of the state, (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.
The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure will decrease with diurnal heating later today.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows southwesterly flow aloft as the jet bends around an upper-level low over Arizona.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection is expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that storms will and cluster quickly. Storm coverage will be widespread throughout the state.
The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 70s F today. The widespread storm coverage is big enough to show up in the temperature chart as pockets of cooler air.
The HRRR shows that the moisture will retreat east again today, dropping the dewpoint into the 30s F.
The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are possible, particularly over the central mountain range.
The HRRR predicts that clouds are likely this afternoon.
Today will be cooler, cloudier and rainier than yesterday.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD