Central New Mexico Weather: 6/2/19

Yesterday was pleasant enough for a run and a little gardening in the afternoon.

This morning has been a partly cloudy, warm and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 86 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph, becoming south this afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming east by midnight

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 84 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 53 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the possibility of storms, particularly in the southeastern corner of the state.  These storms may have gusty winds and large hail.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for the eastern half of the state, but extending into the Albuquerque Metro area.

Associated with the Slight Risk is a 2% Tornado Threat ring.

The visible satellite imagery shows haze and left-over anvil material from yesterday’s storms, particularly in the eastern half of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately humid atmosphere below 550 mb.  There was 0.61 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 72 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -499 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 766 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.6 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 14 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 60 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows warm temperatures and high surface humidity this morning.  The skies are clear (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will decrease with diurnal heating later today.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows nearly-zonal to southwesterly flow aloft.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection is expected today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that isolated, discrete storms are possible east of the central mountain chain this afternoon.  One of the cells, just south of I-40, appears to have a good helicity swath as well.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 80s F today.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will remain in the low 40s F for most of the day for the Albuquerque Metro area.  To the east, a dryline will sharpen throughout the afternoon, aiding the development of afternoon thunderstorms.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are possible, particularly this afternoon in the far eastern part of the state.

The HRRR predicts that clouds are possible this afternoon, especially near where the storms develop.

There is a non-zero Supercell Parameter around the central mountain chain for most of the day.

Decisions, decisions.  On one hand, I have so much to do around the house, and very little money.  On the other hand, there are storms that may develop not far from me.  Do I chase them?  I’m still thinking about it.

I know I don’t get paid again for two weeks, and I will need to buy quite a few tanks of gas over the next two weeks.  I also know that I have to be in Magdalena by 7:00 am tomorrow.  I’ll think it over.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Possible Chase Opportunity, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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