5/27/19: Storm Chase Predictions

I am debating chasing the NE/CO/WY borders this afternoon, but I have to figure it out now.  I’m starting the day in Denver and should probably drive home.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Enhanced Risk for this region.

While there is a higher tornado threat over Illinois, I would play the 5% Tornado Threat ring over the Nebraska Panhandle, or perhaps a little southwest of it, in the 2% Tornado Threat ring.

Visible satellite imagery shows only a few clouds, versus the last few days of overcast skies on our chases.  Also, there are shear rolls and clouds moving at different directions at different layers.  We have shear.  There are tons of boundaries in this region as well.

The 12 Z upper air sounding from North Platte, NE, shows no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The hodograph shows 2 kts of low-level shear and 33 kts of deep-layer shear, almost all of which is really disorganized.

The surface observations graphic is not working at this time, which is annoying.

The HRRR Simulated Reflectivity shows a few discrete cells popping south of I-76 around

Upon further evaluation, I’m not buying it.  There will be severe weather there later today, no doubt, but…it looks like a sloppy mess.  I’m not liking the soundings, I’m not liking the mess of boundaries, the lack of capping, and so on.  I think I’ll turn for home.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
Storm Prediction Center
College of DuPage

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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