We are starting the day in Amarillo, and will hang out somewhere here in the Panhandles.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Enhanced Risk for parts of the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.
Associated with the Enhanced Risk is a 5% Tornado Threat ring.
Visible satellite imagery shows a few interesting features. First off, the entire area is under relatively thick cloud cover from morning convection. However, notice the shear rolls over central and western Oklahoma, as well as in the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Also, notice the line of cumulus bubbles in the stratus deck; this is probably our stationary front.
The 12 Z upper air sounding from Amarillo, TX, shows 1625 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -113 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH). The hodograph shows 22 kts of low-level shear and 41 kts of deep-layer shear, almost all of which is due to speed changes. There was a Supercell Parameter of 6.9.
The surface observations show mild, humid and cloudy conditions over most of the threat area. Winds are from the south to southeast. I noted the dryline with the blue line.
The HRRR Simulated Reflectivity shows a few cells popping and remaining discrete for several hours.
We are about to leave for Dumas, TX, and wait for some of these clouds to mix out. I am not optimistic, with all of the cloud cover. I’m not thrilled with the unidirectional winds on the hodographs, either. The warm front is very diffuse, and is going to be hard to spot throughout the morning.
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