5/23/19: Storm Chase Predictions

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Enhanced Risk for parts of the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.

We will have to keep an eye out if we stay in Amarillo, as there will be a 10% Tornado Threat ring.

Visible satellite imagery shows a few interesting features.  First off, the entire area is under relatively thick cloud cover from morning convection.  However, notice the shear rolls over central and western Oklahoma, as well as in the southeastern Texas Panhandle.  Also, notice the line of cumulus bubbles in the stratus deck; this is probably our stationary front.

The surface observations show cloudy skies all over Texas, which I don’t like to see.  However, the entire state is humid, with dewpoints in the 70s F, and good southeasterly winds advecting more moisture to the area.

The 12 Z upper air sounding from Amarillo, TX, shows 2574 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -45 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The hodograph shows 25 kts of low-level shear and 51 kts of deep-layer shear.

The play today is going to be locating the stationary front, where clouds burn off, and how to avoid the strong capping inversion.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
Storm Prediction Center
College of DuPage

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Possible Chase Opportunity, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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