5/20/19: Storm Chase Predictions

Hopefully, our days of positioning and playing the chess match will pay off this afternoon.  Today looks to be a very bad day for the Great Plains.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a High Risk for severe weather in the Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma.

Associated with the High Risk is a hatched 30% Tornado Threat ring.

A quick glance at the surface observations shows warm, humid air, with cloudy skies and south westerly surface winds.  We are advecting a ton of moisture northwest from the Gulf of Mexico.  The RADAR image also shows some of the morning convection that missed us in Amarillo, but has been off and on severe.

Skies are cloudy and overcast everywhere in Texas.  We have a few severe cells firing, including one to the southwest of Amarillo.

Looking at the NAM, the dryline is expected to tighten up by this afternoon.  Notice the bulge in western Nebraska- we will want to be near the intersection of this and just south of the warm front.

The Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is expected to rise throughout the day behind the warm front.

All of this is contributing to a maximized Supercell Parameter along the US-287 corridor and through most of Texas Panhandle.

The SIGTOR is very high as well:

The HRRR Simulated Reflectivity shows a few discrete cells going up along the I-27 corridor.

The HRRR is also showing strong helicity swaths in this region as well:

Today is going to be a bad day.  There will be several severe, long-track tornadoes today.  It’s really that simple.  We are going to do our best to stay out of the hail and see if we can see into a few of the discrete cells.

I think we will start out by heading south towards Lubbock.  I may drive east out of there, but we’ll evaluate in Lubbock.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
Storm Prediction Center
College of DuPage

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Possible Chase Opportunity, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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