5/17/19 High Plains Tours: Day #6 Predictions

Hopefully, our days of positioning and playing the chess match will pay off this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a set of Enhanced Risks, our choice of which is over western Nebraska.

Associated with the Enhanced Risk is a hatched 10% Tornado Threat ring.

A quick glance at the surface observations shows mild, humid air, with clear skies and southerly surface winds.  There was a sharp change in wind direction in southern Nebraska.  I think that’s our frontal boundary.  It is expected to expand north and become a warm front.

There are still quite a few morning clouds in the target area.  I’d feel a little better about pinpointing today’s chase location if these clouds would mix out a little.

Looking at the NAM, the dryline is expected to tighten up by this afternoon.  Notice the bulge in western Nebraska- we will want to be near the intersection of this and just south of the warm front.

The Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is expected to rise throughout the day behind the warm front.

All of this is contributing to a maximized Supercell Parameter in western and northern Nebraska.

The HRRR Simulated Reflectivity shows cells beginning to fire around 21 Z just behind the warm front.

The HRRR is also showing strong helicity swaths in this region as well:

I’m tentatively targeting Sidney, NE, for storm initiation, with the total expectation of following storms north and east into the sand hills.  We’ll have to play this system carefully.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
Storm Prediction Center
College of DuPage

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Possible Chase Opportunity, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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