I will be chasing with High Plains Tours next week, so it’s time to evaluate the severe weather threat next week.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is not very optimistic, with multiple days of “Potential Too Low” due to a northwest flow regime.
Diving into the models, The GFS and the NAM are in pretty good agreement. Storms are not very likely, but we’ll do the best we can. For now, I’m just looking at the supercell parameter, but will look at many more details as the time approaches.
5/12/19: Sunday is not shaping up to be a good storm chase day. There is the tiniest spot over the western Oklahoma border. Other than that, there’s not much going on at all.
The GFS is in agreement, for the most part. The threat area is a little farther south for the GFS, but about the same distance east.
5/13/19: Perhaps there is a little better threat on the 13th, according to the NAM. There is a little bit of a threat in central Kansas, which would be reachable from northern Texas.
The GFS is in agreement, though at a reduced threat. Even so, the threat is in the same area.
5/14/19: The GFS predicts the threat will drift to the Nebraska/South Dakota/Iowa borders. This is a tough area to chase, as there are only a few river crossings. It has been many years since I chased Iowa, so it might be nice to get up there.
5/15/19: The GFS expects the threat to drift farther south again, to the Oklahoma and Kansas border. It is, once again, not a strong threat.
5/16/19: If we stay farther north and don’t chase the Oklahoma/Kansas threat, we might be able to chase the northern South Dakota threat on this day. However, we are a long ways away from home, so we’ll have to evaluate this threat as it develops.
5/17/19: We will probably drive to Colorado this day, from where ever we finished chasing on the 16th.
This will not be an easy chase. There is very little threat, as things stand today, so we will have to make some lemonade with the lemons of this forecast.
Thank you for reading my post.