Magdalena Storm Chase: Day #6 Predictions

After the excitement of yesterday, today is a little slower.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a large Slight Risk area for today.  Even though this threat is large, we will linger near the western part of this threat.

Associated with the Slight Risk, there is a 2% Tornado Threat Ring.

The surface observations show high humidity, mild temperatures and sunny skies for most of Texas.  Winds are from the southeast, bringing some more moisture our way.

The visible satellite imagery shows nice sunny skies so far this morning.  There is a little morning convection near the Oklahoma border, but otherwise, we will take full advantage of diurnal heating today- unlike every day on this chase thus far.

The 12 Z  upper air sounding from Amarillo, TX, is actually better than I anticipated.  There was 590 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -464 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH), and a moderate capping inversion.  The Lifted Condensation Level was 140 m, but it has lifted.  The shear is better than yesterday, with 20 kts of low-level shear and 21 kts of deep-layer shear available.

The HRRR Simulated Reflectivity shows cells popping around 23 Z through the Panhandle of Texas.

The HRRR Helicity Swaths plot does show a few minor tracks through the Panhandle, but they aren’t very long or strong.

Today is another waiting game.  I think we are already in a good position.  We have clear skies, for once, with decent moisture and southeasterly winds bringing more to us.   I am expecting the Kansas threat to cluster up quickly, so I think we want to stay farther south.

Thank you for reading my post.  I will update as I can.

Sources:
Storm Prediction Center
College of DuPage

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Possible Chase Opportunity, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

1 Response to Magdalena Storm Chase: Day #6 Predictions

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