Magdalena Storm Chase: Day #5 Predictions

After the excitement of yesterday, today is a little slower.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk area today for the western Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico.

There was no tornado threat ring near us today, at least in the morning.  The SPC has added one with the latest update, and we are right on the eastern edge of it.

The surface observations show cloudy skies, high humidity, low temperatures and sunny skies for most of Texas.  Here in Lubbock, we have cloudy skies, high humidity, and winds from the south.

The visible satellite imagery shows there is still so many clouds in the area.  Hopefully, these will mix out soon.

The 12 Z  upper air sounding from Amarillo, TX, is actually better than I anticipated.  There was 356 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -332 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH), and a moderate capping inversion.  The shear is better than yesterday, with 29 kts of low-level shear and 44 kts of deep-layer shear available.  The Lifted Condensation Level was 113 m, and looking outside, has not changed much.

The HRRR Simulated Reflectivity shows cells popping around 22 Z through the Panhandle of Texas.

The HRRR Helicity Swaths plot does show a few minor tracks through the Panhandle, including one just northwest of our current location.

Just for fun, I also checked the Supercell Parameter, and it shows favorable conditions near Lubbock as well.

Today, it’s a little more of the same-old game.  We are waiting for the overnight cloud cover to mix out and give us some diurnal heating.  I think everything else is in place again today for some semi-surprising severe storms.    We will leave our hotel in a few minutes and head just a little bit north and west.

Thank you for reading my post.  I will update as I can.

Storm Prediction Center
College of DuPage


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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