Magdalena Storm Chase: Day #4 Predictions

Today, we reach a crossroads.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk area today for the western Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico.

Associated with the Slight Risk is a 2% Tornado Threat Ring:

The surface observations show cloudy skies, high humidity, low temperatures and variable winds.  The dryline is in central New Mexico.  The farther west we go, the fewer clouds we have, though the skies are not truly clear.

The visible satellite imagery shows there is still so many clouds in the area.  Hopefully, these will mix out soon.

The 12 Z  upper air sounding from Amarillo, TX, is not promising.  There was 14 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -354 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH), and a small capping inversion.  The shear is better than yesterday, with 8 kts of low-level shear and only 27 kts of deep-layer shear available.  The Lifted Condensation Level was 38 m, and looking outside, has not changed much.

The HRRR Simulated Reflectivity shows cells popping early, but remaining discrete for a little longer today.

The HRRR Helicity Swaths plot does not show strong helicity anywhere.

Today, I am thinking cells that form will remain discrete a little longer.  However, I’m really concerned about all of this early morning cloud cover.  I don’t see where the models are treating this cloud cover properly.  They are showing mostly clear skies at this time, and it’s simply not true.  We are drizzly, foggy and overcast in Amarillo, with no sign of mixing out yet.  We will head west and maybe south to try to escape the clouds.

Thank you for reading my post.  I will update as I can.

Storm Prediction Center
College of DuPage


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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