With less than a week left before I go chasing, I am watching the weather in the Great Plains closely.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is a kick in the pants this morning. Days 4 and 5 (Wednesday and Thursday) show “Predictability Too Low”, which is fine. Days 6-8 (Friday, Saturday and Sunday) show “Potential Too Low”, which is a little painful to see.
Diving into the models, The GFS shows that the first few days should be in Texas. Then, perhaps we will have to make a decision between Texas or making the long haul to Nebraska. As we get closer to departure, I’ll switch over to the NAM, as I tend to trust it for severe weather location a little more than the GFS. These models are subject to change over the next few days.
5/1/19: I don’t think we’ll reach the area of maximum threat. The strongest threat is now near the Texas and Mexico border, with the Texas Panhandle threat weakening slightly. I’d probably still shoot for western Oklahoma, even though our odds of reaching there were slim. Maybe we’d be able to do some nighttime lightning photography.
5/2/19: The threat for this day has weakened and shifted east, now threatening Louisiana. I don’t think we’ll chase Louisiana, unless there is no other choice. It’s terrible chase terrain, with hills, trees, and bayou.
5/3/19: This is looking more and more dismal. The threat has virtually disappeared, though there is a weak stripe of non-zero supercell numbers through the Great Plains. It’s such a slim chance.
5/4/19: The threat has diminished as compared to yesterday’s run, but it looks better than everything else so far this week. Blech. Perhaps we will still chase Nebraska?
5/5/19: Perhaps there is light at the end of the tunnel? It looks like there is a threat rebuilding in western Kansas and southeastern Colorado, according to this model run. This is a data-dead spot, so perhaps we’ll have worked out all of our technical difficulties and map-reading skills during the slow days, and can chase this threat.
5/6/19: If this model holds, we should go for broke and head for southern Texas to chase Hill Country. On this model run, this is the best threat all week.
5/7/19: This would be our second-best day, but we do have to return on the 7th, and cannot end the day near Waco, TX. We will be driving away from this threat.
This just goes to show how much the models are varying for this week. Tomorrow, I will be able to add the first day of NAM model data as a comparison.
Thank you for reading my post.