Central New Mexico Weather: 4/17/19

Yesterday was partly to mostly sunny, warm, and clear.  It was a beautiful day.  It clouded up and began raining last night.

This morning has been cloudy, rainy, cool and still.  We’ve had a good soaking rain, my garden and trees will be happy.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 41 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 74 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers, but then gradually becoming clear with a low temperature of 41 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph this afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, becoming clear, with a low temperature of 38 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of the central mountain range.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below.

The visible satellite imagery shows that most of the state is under heavy cloud cover.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a saturated atmosphere below 300 mb.  There was 0.60 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 30 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -21 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 365 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.2 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 7 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 18 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and high humidity this morning.  The skies are cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are still.  The Doppler RADAR shows rain falling over the center of the state.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under low pressure with a slight pressure gradient to our west.   The RAP shows that this trend is expected to continue for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very little flow aloft, as we rest in the bottom of the trough.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows that there is no strong thermal advection expected today.    This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that precipitation is likely,k as the low pressure system overhead rotates and slowly moves northeast.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 50s F today.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 40s F today.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that there will be cloudy skies all day.

Today will be a yucky day outside with rain off and on and cloudy skies.  It will be cooler than yesterday as well.  Even so, my garden will be happy.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.