Central New Mexico Weather: 4/12/19

Yesterday was cool and breezy.  It wasn’t as windy as Wednesday, but it was still unpleasant.

This morning has been cloudy, cool and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and a high temperature of 55 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and a low temperature of 36 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a cloudy day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and a low temperature of 36 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a cloudy day, with a 20% chance of morning snow (no accumulation), followed by a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 47 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of snow showers (<0.5″), and a low temperature of 28 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Winter Storm Watch for a stripe of high-elevation, northern counties.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below.

The visible satellite imagery shows that most of the state has cloudy skies this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere above 700 mb.  There was 0.25 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1373 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 14 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 54 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and low humidity this morning.  The skies are cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under a low pressure system and no strong pressure gradients.  The RAP shows that this pattern will persist for at least the next six hours as the low pressure system widens in coverage.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows that there is no strong thermal advection expected today.   This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that a few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible by this evening.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the low 60s F today.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will rise into the upper 20s F by this afternoon.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that there will be cloudy skies all day today.

Today is going to remain cool and cloudy.  The winds have died down, and I’m hoping to get a little rain on my garden tonight.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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