Central New Mexico Weather: 3/21/19

Yesterday was partly sunny, mild and a bit breezy in Magdalena.

This morning has been overcast, cool and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the east at 10-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 42 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 43 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 10-20 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 38 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a slow-moving system that will pass over the state from tonight through Friday.  This means snow for the higher elevations and severe storms at the lower elevations.

Along these lines, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather in the central part of New Mexico today.  The primary threats will be hail up to 1″ in diameter and gusty winds.  The tornado threat is less than 2%.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows ongoing convection and thick clouds across most of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere.  There was 0.41 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.2 C/km.  The low-level shear was 18 kts (due mostly to direction changes), and the deep-layer shear was 36 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and high humidity this morning.  The skies are cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under high pressure and a slight pressure gradient.  The RAP shows that the pressure will decrease as a low over Arizona moves east.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is possible in two waves today, as convection occurs ahead of the low pressure system.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 60s F today.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will be in the upper 30s F all day.

The HRRR shows gusty winds are possible, particularly over the western part of the state.  Additionally, strong thunderstorm gusts are possible statewide, which are not shown on this graphic.

The HRRR predicts that the skies will remain cloudy all day.

The CAPE is not very strong, though the HRRR has it a bit stronger than the NAM.  The HRRR CAPE chart is shown below.

The supercell composite is not impressive, but it is non-zero.  A few rotating updrafts are possible today, given the shear.

Today is going to be rainy and stormy, with a severe thunderstorm or two mixed in.  I’ll keep my eyes open as I will be in the Marginal Risk all day today.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.