Central New Mexico Weather: 3/8/19

Yesterday was partly sunny, windy and warm.  The evening turned chilly with the strong winds.

This morning has been mostly cloudy, cool and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 25-35 mph and gusting to 50 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 34 F.  The winds will be from the west at 30-40 mph, gusting to 55 mph, but then decreasing to 15-25 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a high temperature of 69 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-20 mph, increasing to 25-35 mph and, gusting to 50 mph this afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, becoming mostly clear, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and a low temperature of 34 F.  The winds will be from the west at 25-35 mph, gusting to 50 mph, but then decreasing to 15-25 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 10% chance of isolated showers, and a high temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-20 mph, increasing to 25-35 mph and gusting to 50 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of snow showers and a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the west at 25-35 mph, gusting to 50 mph, but then decreasing to 15-25 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued Red Flag Warnings and High Wind Watches for much of the state today.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for the southwestern part of the state today.

The visible satellite imagery shows that most of the state is under mostly cloudy skies.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere this morning.  There was 0.25 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1636 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.6 C/km.  The hodograph shows the low-level shear is 17 kts (due mostly to directional changes), and the deep layer shear is 83 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and low humidity this morning.  The skies are mostly sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are still.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients.  The RAP shows that low pressure (1000 mb) will form overhead in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong, southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is possible off and on all day.  The precipitation eventually forms a line ahead of a polar cold front.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 60s F today.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will reach the low 20s F.

The HRRR shows gusty winds are likely all day.  Some of these winds may be damaging, and north-south travel in high profile vehicles may be difficult.

The HRRR predicts that the skies will remain cloudy all day.

Today will be okay temperature-wise, but the wind and potential for rain will make today unpleasant.  I’ll still be outside for part of the day, but it won’t be as nice as the last few days have been.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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