Central New Mexico Weather: 3/1/19

Yesterday was mostly sunny, still and mild.  It was a beautiful day.

This morning has been mostly sunny, cold and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 39 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 72 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 44 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 41 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the possibility of fire weather this afternoon.  The eastern plains of New Mexico will have strong winds, low humidity and an unstable air mass (potential for lightning).

The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows a stripe of thicker clouds through the middle of the state from west to east.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated layer at 450 mb, and varying moisture elsewhere.  There was 0.29 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1133 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows the low-level shear is 17 kts (due mostly to directional changes), and the deep layer shear is 82 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and moderate humidity this morning.  The skies are mostly clear (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning.  The RAP shows that this trend will continue for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong, northwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is unlikely in the middle Rio Grande River Valley.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in upper 60s F today.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will remain in the mid 20s F.

The HRRR shows gusty winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR forecasts overcast skies by this evening.

Today is going to be a fantastic day, weather-wise.  It will be another great day for being outdoors.  I’m not seeing the gusty winds or potential for thunderstorms over the eastern plains this afternoon like I was expecting, based on the NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook.  Even so, it will be dry with a little breeze, so be careful with fire, as always.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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