Central New Mexico Weather: 2/15/19

Yesterday was cloudy, rainy and cool.

This morning has been mostly sunny, cool and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers in the morning and a high temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 34 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers in the morning and a high temperature of 66 F.   The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming north in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 36 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers in the morning and a high temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 33 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Winter Storm Warning as well as several Wind Advisories.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather risk for the northeastern corner of the state today.  The strong winds are a major contributor to this threat.

The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows thin clouds over most of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a saturated layer from 700 mb to 600 mb.  There was 0.45 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 342 m.  There was a tiny inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.3 C/km.  The hodograph shows the low-level shear is 47 kts (due mostly to directional changes), and the deep layer shear is 129 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and low humidity this morning.  The skies are partly cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are not under any strong pressure systems, but a low pressure system has developed over northeastern New Mexico.  This places a strong pressure gradient across the northern part of the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the diurnal heating will lower the pressure everywhere, weakening the gradient over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong westerly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity forecasts a few scattered showers this morning.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak in low 60s today.

The HRRR shows that moisture will increase significantly, with dewpoints peaking in the mid 30s F.

The HRRR shows gusty winds are likely, particularly east of the central mountain range.

The HRRR shows that the skies are expected to become mostly cloudy by this afternoon.

Today will be a mild.  However, the snow is coming.  I’ll be watching this winter system as it develops.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.